Sir Menzies Campbell resigns as Lib Dem leader
Sir Menzies Campbell has resigned as Lib Dem leader, was he pushed or did he jump? Who wielded the knife? This is the story that everyone in the media is seeking, quietly forgetting that it is the media's constant references to Ming's age and lacklustre performances which were truly responsible for forcing him out of office.
But no-one in the media wants a 3 horse race, its too difficult to report, they want a simple head to head between the Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems just represent an inconvenience as far as the news editors are concerned, only deserved of headlines when someone is going wrong, Charles Kennedy's "Drink Problem", Mark Oaten's Gay Affair, Simon Hughes' bisexual younger years, Sir Menzies' age or now his resignation. These are the Lib Dem stories which have dominated the headlines in the past 2 years. Hardly a comment has been made about policies, proposals or initiatives; they’ve certainly never made lead news items.
I was a Lib Dem member, I voted in the 2006 leadership election but since I’ve let my membership lapse, I didn’t vote for Ming, I voted for Chris Huhne, so I was never satisfied with his safe and steady style, I wanted a radical leader, someone who would put real difference between the parties by outlining a radical agenda. Still Ming did preside over some very radical proposals, 4p Tax Cuts, green taxation, but he always did it in his rather calm unassuming way, it never felt big, it always felt safe, too safe perhaps for some Lib Dems members as it failed to capture the imagination of the masses.
This failure to captivate the masses has something to do with Ming's calm professional demeanour but more to do with the Media constant ageist references towards him which never gave him a change.
Ming is a victim of the ADH which is inherent in today’s society, people don’t listen, they don’t pay attention and they latch onto the easiest headline to digest. Typically this turns out to be "Ming is too old!" It's easy to forget we wouldn’t be having this conversation if it was Sir Menzies Campbell versus Michael Howard, (both were born in 1941). But with fresh faced 40-something David Cameron, all of a sudden people can point fingers and complain Ming is past it.
Ming also made references to being a centrist, but the Lib Dems have never really fitted well into the left-right political spectrum, they’ve always existed outside that realm, plus with the Conservatives pushing towards the centre and Labour moving ever increasingly towards the right a distinct identity for the Lib Dems was getting increasingly difficult to obtain, least of all because both Labour and the Tories kept stealing key aspects of their policy proposals!
Ming's real failure was his inability to shake off the negative image the media had given him as this stereotypical old man incapable of leading a nation. Whilst this was unfair, it's his inability to deal with this unfairness and present his own image of himself to the nation which is the real reason why he was right to resign.
The Lib Dems need a leader who is going to be quirky, who will be radical and who will define himself to the media, Charles Kennedy did this to perfection, his appearances on chat shows where he displayed tremendous humour and wit endeared him to the nation and it was on the back of his personal popularity. He also had a serious side and his personal problems aside was an excellent party leader when he was on his game. He always found a distinctive stance which set the Lib Dems apart, taxation, Iraq, civil liberties.
Don't get me wrong I'm not part of the "bring back Charles Kennedy" camp. But the next Lib Dem leader needs to be more like Charles than Ming.
Date: 15/10/2007 22:19:36 |
Author: David
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New Labour Out of Ideas
Its official the government has run out of ideas! Least that’s the verdict of all the politicos in Westminster after Chancellor Alastair Darling outlined his pre-budget report and managed incorporate into his announcements no fewer than 3 policies previously and recently tabled by opposition parties.
In my last article I compared the election posturing to a poker game, where the Tories bluffed and won, causing Gordon Brown to rule out a snap autumn poll, however now you would have being forgiven for thinking that all this talk of a possible Election was just to get the Tories to cough up some policies so that Labour could rewrite in their own red ink!
Alastair Darling pledged to raise the threshold for inheritance tax (a key proposal at the recent Tory Party Conference) yet also managed to sound like the party which valued marriage by only making this allowance to married couples. We singles still have to pay more, (better get myself hitched).
The main rate of Corporation Tax will be cut by 2% - another Tory idea.
Even the Lib Dems have been imitated, with the Chancellor finally taking up their proposal to switch Air Travel duty from passengers to flights to provide a strong disincentive to airlines who allow planes to travel half full.
Of course we shouldn't be so surprised. This happened before, earlier in the year when the standard rate of Income Tax was cut from 22% to 20%. This was originally a Lib Dem proposal, however in a cynical slight of hand by Gordon Brown; he made it look like he was adopting the Lib Dem lower tax policy but instead gave with one hand and took with the other, abolishing the 10% starter bracket meaning you pay 20% on all earnings beyond your personal allowance.
They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery...
Date: 10/10/2007 00:25:22 |
Author: David
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The election nobody wanted
Gordon Brown ended weeks of speculation yesterday by announcing he will not hold a snap General Election this autumn and also ruled out a May 2008 poll as well. The Prime Minister explained that he wanted a chance to show the country his "vision for change", opposition parties hit back accusing Mr Brown of loosing his nerve. But did anyone in politics really want a General Election?
Certainly Brown was considering it, he put his party on alert, hired election staff, altered the program of government business to allow for an election and certainly did nothing to stop his key ministerial aids from talking up the possibility of autumn poll. Be in no doubt, if he believed he could have increased his majority in the commons Brown would have called an election.
Remarkably in spite of David Cameron’s call to "Let the people decide" and “bring it on," it’s the Conservatives we have to thank for ensuring there won’t be a General Election. The Conservatives entered their annual party conference nervous about a General Election and quite frankly not really fancying it, they were still behind in the polls and Cameron’s personal popularity had taken a hit after a messy end to the last parliamentary session.
What they did was play an absolutely excellent double bluff. They talked up the election, got their activists excited out it and made out like they were super confident of winning. Of course they weren’t, had their been a General Election, they’d have had less than a week to put together a manifesto, but that didn’t matter, they managed to convince the public they were ready, and a poll this weekend revealed they’d achieved a 6 point swing in marginal seats.
This was enough to cause Gordon Brown to fold his hand. The Tories successfully bluffed their way to safety and ensured that would be no General Election.
Don’t be fooled into thinking the Tories could have won an election, even with their six point lead in the marginals, this would have only resulted in a Hung Parliament, with Labour holding 306 seats and the Tories 246. This would have being disastrous for the Conservatives because it would have brought the Lib Dems back into the frame.
Still whilst Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell has rightly accused Gordon Brown of loosing his nerve, before this 6 point swing was revealed, he couldn’t have been too keen on the prospect of a General Election either. With the Lib Dems polling just 13% of the popular vote in a recent survey, the lowest I can remember the Lib Dems polling in years, they would not have wielded the influence they would have liked in a hung parliament.
So much like a game a Texas Hold’em, the Tories were bluffing, the Lib Dems had nothing and Labour folded, no-one wanted to see the river card that would have been the General Election.
Date: 07/10/2007 22:33:47 |
Author: David
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Immigration Out of Control? Perhaps not!
Right-wing think tanks like Migration Watch UK and pseudo-racist political parties like UKIP and the BNP would have us believe that immigration is out of control and that there are too many migrant coming to the UK. Well interesting statistics released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) look set to blow that theory out of the water.
According to the figures some 574,000 “long-term” migrants moved to the UK in 2006. However a record 385,000 people left the UK. Around half of which were foreign migrants leaving the country and the other half were UK citizens moving abroad.
This gives us a net gain from migration of 189,000 people; this represents just a 0.3% increase due to direct migration.
The actual population of the UK increased by 349,000 in 2006, this discrepancy with the migration figures is due to a number of factors. One that the right-wing think tanks would be keen to point out is that these migration figures do not include asylum seekers, indeed they do not. So let me include them for balance. There were 23,520 asylum applications during 2006 and 18,235 failed asylum seekers were deported. This means there was a net population increase of just 5,000 from genuine asylum seekers.
So of the UK population increase of 349,000, 189,000 were migrants and 5,000 were asylum seekers, so where did the other 155,000 people come from?
The answer, Britain’s fertility rate is at is highest for 26 years and the death rate continues to slow. In simple terms people are living longer and more children are being born. So almost half of Britain’s population increase during 2006 was due to natural population growth.
One other factor which the anti-immigration lobby won’t tell you is that Britain’s population actually needs to grow faster than it is presently growing!
Britain has an aging population, presently 16% of the population are over 65, according to estimates this is set to rise to 26% by 2051. Now as 65 years typically tend to be retired, so they depend on the working age population to provide them with goods and services. Now with 60% more OAPs, it’s logically follows that demands on the working population are going to increase, so naturally we are going to need more workers.
Where are these workers coming from? Well let’s not kid ourselves that our reviving birth rate is going to fill the gap, we’re still not baby booming (and nor should be less we want to worsen the problems of an aging population for future generations.) What we need are migrant workers.
These migrants will prop up our economy and help us support our aging populations, even if their net contribution to the Treasury is small (as migrants mostly take low paid jobs) they are providing the services which our aging population demands and needs.
Its time to wake up to the fact that migration isn’t something we should be against, its something we should embrace. Sure its can’t be uncontrolled, there must be checks and balances, but next time you catch yourself thinking “Bloody immigrants” remember that without migrant workers Britain will grind to a halt.
Sources:
- UK sees drop in asylum seekers – The Guardian 27 February 2007
http://society.guardian.co.uk/asylumseekers/story/0,,2022608,00.html
- Fertitly rate highest for 26 years – ONS 7 June 2007
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=369
- Record Number leave UK – BBC News 22 August 2007
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6958220.stm
- Population Ageing – ONS 22 August 20007
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=949
- Death Rates – ONS 22 August 20007
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=952
- See how the UK's population is changing – BBC News 26 November 2004
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4045261.stm
Date: 24/08/2007 00:29:26 |
Author: David
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Having just watched the Lib Dem Leadership Debate on BBC One's Question Time Programme, I must confess to feeling slightly disheartened. It wasn't a shining display of liberal vision and there were few memorable highlights. 
